ToolsThe Number Test
Can your system back your number?
Five numbers from today’s business. The page compounds them, runs 4,000 simulated paths and shows how often the system you run today lands on your target.
Five inputs
Today’s business, as it runs.
$20M
The yearly value of every active contract today, before any growth you expect.
$40M
The ARR you have committed to.
3 years
Counted from today. Past five years the compounding hides more than it shows.
110%
Above 100% your customers grow the base; below it, new customers replace the loss first.
$4.50M
What the team adds in a typical year at today’s run rate. Leave out planned hires.
Odds of reaching the target on time
63%
Close
The target is in reach, but an ordinary bad year knocks it off.
04070100
Projected ARR · year 3
$41.5M
Inputs held at today’s run rate
Ahead of target
$1.51M
3.8% over
Growth needed a year
26%
To reach the target
Growth projected a year
27.6%
The system as it runs
Projected ARR, year by year
Year 3
The median path clears the target by $1.63M.
Low case · P10
$35.5M
Median · P50
$41.6M
High case · P90
$49M
Target
$40M
TodayYear 1Year 2Year 3
80% of pathsMedian pathTarget
What it would take
Two levers to 70% odds.
NRR, new-customer ARR held
111.3%
Up 1.3% from today’s 110%.
New-customer ARR a year, NRR held
$4.85M
$350K a year more than today.
For the board
The questions these numbers raise.
0169.2% of the growth has to come from new customers. That takes about $24.8M of qualified pipeline a year. Is it built?
02NRR of 110% held for 3 years sits above the top-quartile 109%. What evidence says it lasts?
03Reaching 70% odds takes NRR of 111.3% or $4.85M of new-customer ARR a year. Which one is the team committing to?
How it works: each year the retained base compounds at NRR and a new-customer cohort lands. 4,000 seeded paths let NRR move ±5 points and new-customer ARR ±28% a year, with half of each surprise carried forward. The odds are the share of paths at or above the target, shown between 3% and 97%.
A number the board can lean on.
The Diagnostic rebuilds these five inputs from your CRM and shows which lever moves the odds most.